Europe has two months to decide whether it will defend Denmark from US attack

"We'll worry about Greenland in about two months" Trump says after invading Venezuela, as White House policy chief Stephen Miller's wife suggests US occupation of the Danish territory is coming "soon"

Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen

On Saturday, just hours after the US invasion of Venezuela, the wife of White House policy chief Stephen Miller posted a map of the Danish territory of Greenland with an American flag on it with the caption “soon”. It followed ominous statements from US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth during the Venezuela press conference where he promised that the military operation was just a first step in an overall strategy of “reestablishing American dominance in the Western Hemisphere”, which includes Greenland. “This is America First,” he said, dispelling any remaining European delusions that this is an isolationist regime. “Welcome to 2026.” Then, speaking to reporters on Air Force one last night, Trump reiterated his threat, saying “we need Greenland” and that the US will deal with Greenland “in about two months”. Whether he was joking or not doesn’t matter. That comment, and the incendiary post of the map by a member of Trump’s inner circle, sent both Greenlandic and Danish leaders into a panic. In response, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen released a statement yesterday warning:

“I have to say this very directly to the United States: It makes absolutely no sense to talk about the need for the United States to take over Greenland. The United States has no right to annex any of the three countries in the Commonwealth.”

"The Kingdom of Denmark - and thus Greenland - is part of NATO and is therefore covered by the alliance’s security guarantee. We already have a defense agreement between the Kingdom and the United States today, which gives the United States wide access to Greenland. And we, on the part of the Kingdom, have invested significantly in security in the Arctic. I would therefore strongly urge the United States to stop the threats against a historically close ally and against another country and another people who have said very clearly that they are not for sale.”

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“That’s enough now,” Greenland’s regional prime minister Jens Frederik Nielsen wrote on Facebook yesterday in response to Trump’s renewed threats. “No more pressure. No more insinuations. No more fantasies of annexation.”

For a year, EU leaders have downplayed the American threat to Greenland, pretending not to hear the very real and actionable threats made by the White House from President Trump on down to Secretary of State Marco Rubio. The EU’s president Ursula von der Leyen refused to acknowledge the threat after it was first made one year ago, and a European Commission spokesperson laughed it off as a joke. Even as Rubio told the Europeans bluntly “this is not a joke”, our European leaders insisted it was. Well they’re not laughing now after Trump’s unilateral invasion of a sovereign state this weekend, collapsing the system of international law that has governed the world for 80 years. “Trump does not just talk,” Rubio said on Saturday, evoking the widely telegraphed US warning that they have plans in place to invade the Kingdom of Denmark. “If he says he is serious about something, he means it.”

And yet, European leaders are not making any game plan for such an invasion or other type of hostile takeover – nor are they outlining what would be the possible consequences. We’ve seen vague statements from other Nordic leaders today saying they stand with the Danish prime minister, but no credible defence. The UK government’s response has been particularly cringe. During an interview on Sky News this morning, UK Home Office Minister Mike Tapp wouldn’t even say that the US shouldn’t invade Denmark - so terrified is the entire Labour government of offending Donald Trump. Asked by Sky whether Starmer would bring up the Greenland issue with Trump when he eventually speaks to him (the White House is still ignoring his calls apparently), Starmer’s spokesperson would not say.

Saturday was a test for Europe, and Europe abjectly failed. This will have repercussions far beyond Venezuela. Even if you as a European don’t care about Venezuela and don’t care about international law, Europe’s weak response is inviting an American attack on the Europe. Not a single European leader other than Pedro Sanchez has dared criticise the US invasion, and some such as Starmer, Meloni, Macron and European Parliament speaker Roberta Metsola have gone further by celebrating it. At the same time that they are vaguely calling for respect of international law by all parties, they are cheering a flagrant violation of international law. The year of gaslighting from our European leaders continues. According to a report today in The Times, the UK will abstain if there is a vote in the UN Security Council on the invasion’s legality. A senior UK government source told the paper: “This was a decision by the US. It is not for us to make a judgement on whether it was lawful.”

It is absurd and dangerous for European governments to be pretending this has nothing to do with them. And it is in stark contrast to the way Latin American countries responded with a joint statement condemning the American invasion this weekend (also joined by Spain). What happened this weekend will have real security consequences for all of us. An emboldened MAGA regime will now turn their sights on their next targets, and Europe is in the crosshairs. Trump partially reiterated the list again this morning. Colombia, Cuba, Panama, Nigeria, Iran, Gaza, Canada, Mexico and Greenland (Denmark) – and the list grows each month. Whether Denmark is the next one attacked is now simply a question of Trump’s whims. European leaders may think they’re being clever by keeping their heads down and cheering the fall of Maduro in order to put Europe in the president’s good graces. But as Trump’s renewed warning yesterday shows, it’s not working. MAGA senses weakness, and the more our European leaders behave like vassal states the more the Americans are going to treat them as such.

"Von der Leyen, Metsola and Kallas seem to inhabit an alternate reality, where the US is more embarrassing rich uncle than strategic threat,” wrote James Kanter wrote in the Brussels Times today. "Europeans need to be thinking about [Greenland] after what Trump did in Venezuela. 'We're going to get it one way or the other,' Trump said in March. He wants its minerals and, it seems, to fulfil a warped manifest destiny. There's also Trump's call for regime change in continental Europe itself.”

Today it’s Venezuela. Tomorrow it may be Cuba. Or Nigeria. Or god knows where else. Eventually it’s going to be Europe. Are Europeans ready? Not at all. They are still living in a fantasy world where the US is their ally and protector.

It’s not enough just to make vague platitudes about international law, or to say you stand with the Danish prime minister. European countries needs to show strength and lay out a credible plan to defend their territory from an American attack – an attack which could come in many forms. “It’s great to say Greenland will decide its own future, but doesn’t really work when you consider the likelihood of a sham referendum or some other ‘democratic’ method to flip it,” Politico Europe’s chief foreign affairs correspondent Nicholas Vinocur noted today. “What’s missing is the word ‘defend’. Is Europe getting ready to stand back on this one?”

“There is little that would hold back Trump from declaring US forces and bases in Greenland to be annexed as sovereign US territory, among other steps,” observed The Economist’s defence editor Shashank Joshi yesterday. “A president who sees the world in terms of spheres of influence and resource acquisition would have little compunction about this.”

A year ago, France proposed that Europe as a whole demonstrate its willingness to defend Greenland by stationing troops from multiple countries (France, Britain, Germany, Italy, etc) in the territory. Then a US invasion would have to target not just Danish soldiers but also troops from these other countries, making the risk-reward calculation for the White House much harder. But this idea was shot down by the leaders of Germany and Britain. No progress has been made on the idea since then despite it being endorsed by the top EU military official, Robert Brieger. There has simply been no sense of urgency to do something like this from our European leaders, whose heads remain firmly in the sand.

The assumption from our leaders seems to be that Europe can’t do anything to stop an American annexation of an EU member state’s territory, so why bother trying. This “we can’t do anything” attitude is unfortunately endemic on this continent. But as European Council on Foreign Relations Editorial Director Jeremy Cliffe argued yesterday: “Europe needs to get much more comfortable threatening Trump with serious deterrent measures, and if necessary implementing them. Tariffs, taxes and bans on US firms; selloffs of US Treasuries; expulsions of American troops; sanctions on individuals. Speak his language: strength.”

It is just not true that Europe has no tools to fight back. Yes, with its disunited army and military dependence, Europe cannot win a war with the United States right now. But they can put in place sanctions to dissuade the US from an invasion. Europe could destroy the US economy with a coordinated sell-off of American bonds. European countries can immediately expel the US soldiers on their soldiers, who do not have an automatic right to be here but are here on the basis of national permissions. Such actions should at least be maintained as viable threats. But suggest it to any European leader in power right now and their heads would explode. Europeans are not powerless, they just have a mentality of powerlessness. And so Europe’s weakness becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.

At this point, it seems like Europe is practically begging the US to invade. Whether it will actually do so is anybody’s guess. The only way to avoid having such an action not result in the dissolution of NATO is for Denmark to say they do not consider the US attack to be an act of war but rather part of a negotiation. They would then hand over Greenland without a fight in order to avoid NATO Article 5 being triggered between NATO members. For decades it has always been assumed that the two countries who would trigger this dilemma were Greece and Turkey. Now it turns out to be the US and Denmark.

Left with a choice between handing over territory or dissolving NATO and ending the American protectorate, I think we know which one our current leaders will choose. And if they think Trump will stop there, they are fools. Putin will get Eastern Ukraine, Trump will get Greenland and from there they will continue to gobble up neighbouring areas – either through outright annexation or (more likely) creating puppet states within their respective spheres of influence. The world is being divided into American, Russian and Chinese spheres – and Europe is set to be divided once again. Because Europeans refuse to unify, they are going to be torn apart as pawns in a global game.

“2026 is beginning with a strong blow,” Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said this weekend. “There will be an analysis of how this will affect the situation in our region. In today’s world, such large-scale events as the strike carried out by United States forces affect the entire globe. Therefore, we will respond and prepare for a new situation.” But so far Europe is not responding. There has not even been a call for an emergency meeting of EU foreign ministers.

“No-one will take seriously a weak and divided Europe: neither enemy nor ally,” Tusk later posted on X. “It is already clear now. We must finally believe in our own strength, we must continue to arm ourselves, we must stay united like never before. One for all, and all for one. Otherwise, we are finished.”