Europe misread Trump as an isolationist. It's now clear he's an imperialist.
Gaza, Panama, Canada, Venezuela and Greenland are all in the crosshairs of Trump's manifest destiny. Europeans thought the risk was America would leave them alone. Now the risk is America will attack.
European capitals have today been reacting to the US President’s shock announcement overnight that America intends to take control of Gaza and deport its inhabitants in an act of ethnic cleansing. German foreign minister Annalena Baerbock said the plan is “unacceptable” and against international law. A spokesperson for French President Emmanuel Macron said said the same, adding that France is “fully opposed to the displacement of populations” and said the idea is “dangerous.” “Gaza is the land of the Palestinian Gazans - the Palestinian Gazans must stay in Gaza,” Spain’s foreign minister told a news conference in Madrid.
What has unfolded over the past two weeks is not just the worst fears of Europe’s leaders being realized - it is going far beyond their worst fears or even the limits of their imagination. For decades, Europe’s Atlanticist leadership has refused to even consider the idea that one day America might not be there as an ally to protect this continent, making their citizens ever-more dependent on the whims of American voters over time. With Trump’s election in 2016, following his threats to pull the US out of NATO, Europe’s political and intellectual elite were finally able to entertain the idea that a newly-isolationist America might not be as reliable as they thought. Baby steps were taken toward boosting Europe’s capability for self-defence, and following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine the EU made some half-hearted efforts to develop an EU Defence Union. But even then, they were not seeing the forest for the trees. They thought the biggest risk Europe faced was America abandoning them. Never in their wildest dreams could they imagine a scenario where the risk is that America attacks them. But that scenario is becoming more and more likely with each passing day of Trump’s unrestrained second term, which will clearly be nothing like the first.
The list of territories Trump has suggested invading an annexing is growing ever-longer. First it was Panama, then it was Greenland, now it’s Gaza. He has also floated annexing Canada and making it the “51st state”. Not since the end of the 19th century has the United States been so focused on building a global empire of expanding territory. After a century in which the US saw its strategic interests better served by building a global empire of military dependencies and vassal states just with military bases in other peoples’ countries, rather than maintaining a territorial empire, Trump has returned America and the world to an era of 19th century big-power expansionism. None of this should have come as a surprise to Europeans. Over the past eight years, even as Trump and the MAGA movement praised Russia for its ‘might make right’ approach, Europeans convinced themselves that the biggest risk they could face was American isolationism. Now, welcome to the new era of American violent and clumsy expansionism.
For 75 years, Europe has put itself under the protection of America due to its fear of Russia. But as the African saying goes, the sheep spends its entire life fearing the wolf, only to be eaten by the shepherd. While Moscow was the obviously aggressive and dangerous neighbour, Europeans have not had the courage or foresight to question the wisdom of putting themselves deeper and deeper under the control and protection of Washington in order to protect them from the Russians. America might have been a friend and ally up to this point, but what would happen if it suddenly wasn’t? What would happen if there was a regime change in the United States which meant that not only would America no longer protect Europe from Russia, but that they might seek to attack Europe themselves? France has been the only member of the flock to be cognisant of this risk and has warned about it for many years - but for that the French have been mocked and derided by others, particularly the British and Eastern Europeans. Europe’s Atlanticist leadership has no plan B. And that is why Europe finds itself in the panicked situation it is in today.
After just two weeks in office, Trump’s imperial ambitions already span four continents. In Latin America, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio made clear on his visit to Panama this week that Trump is deadly serious about a US annexation of the Panama Canal. The Panamanian government is quietly preparing for war. “I think there will be many, many casualties on our side,” Panama’s former president, Ernesto Pérez Balladares told Politico. Other Latin American countries are watching closely, fearful that they too could be subject to an outright US ground invasion, rather than the CIA-backed coups propping up vassal states which has been more America’s style over the past century.
In Europe, Rubio has told America’s supposed allies that Trump’s intention to annex Greenland one way or another “is no joke.” Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen was dashing across EU capitals last week holding emergency meetings with other leaders following an alarming and dangerous phone call from Donald Trump in which the US president aggressively implied he would take the Danish territory of Greenland by force. “It was horrendous,” a government official told the Financial Times. “Before, it was hard to take it seriously. But I do think it is serious and potentially very dangerous.” “The inviolability of borders is a fundamental principle of international law,” German Chancellor Olaf Scholz declared after meeting the Danish prime minister. “Russia has broken this principle with its invasion of Ukraine, thereby also laying the axe to the peace order in Europe. This principle must apply to everyone. Borders must not be moved by force.” The French foreign minister said there are now ongoing talks about sending a joint European military force to Greenland to demonstrate to Trump that he wouldn’t be able to take the island without a fight.
Meanwhile the Middle East is erupting today following Trump’s comments at a press conference with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Washington that the United States intends to take over Gaza and expel the Palestinians from their land. Trump said he foresees long-term US ownership of the Gaza Strip while it’s being rebuilt, with ideas to turn it into a Middle East “Riviera” with “valuable waterfront property” as suggested by his son-in-law Jared Kushner. Hamas, which has governed the strip for two decades, was quick to respond. “Trump’s remarks about his desire to control Gaza are ridiculous and absurd, and any ideas of this kind are capable of igniting the region,” Senior Hamas official Sami Abu Zuhri said, adding that the call for Palestinians in Gaza to be ethnically cleansed was an “expulsion from their land”. “We consider them a recipe for generating chaos and tension in the region because the people of Gaza will not allow such plans to pass.” In other words, what Trump is proposing is a US military invasion of Palestine, a war which could quickly engulf the entire Middle East. This from a man who claimed that under Joe Biden the world had exploded in chaos, and that he was the “peace candidate”.
So many Europeans and Americans alike took Trump’s nonsensical claims about wanting peace literally. That he is doing precisely the opposite now that he’s taken office doesn’t yet seem to have even registered with those of his supporters who are supposed fans of peace. And as for Europe’s leaders, they still can’t seem to grapple with the idea that what is happening here is far worse than their worst fears of US isolationism. Europe cannot win a war against the United States. Nor can Panama, Canada, or the Palestinians. If Trump wants to start these wars around the world, he can do it. The checks and balances that could stop him in the US are gone. And Europe is going to have to live with the consequences of its decades-long blind trust in America.