Meloni says Italy is sovereign. America doesn't seem to agree.

Until now, Sanchez has been the only European leader willing to stand up to Trump. Meloni changed the game this weekend by offering Europe's most blunt rebuke yet.

Over the past two years whenever Donald Trump insulted or made up stories about European leaders, they have excused it, ignored it, or agreed with him with a ‘please sir may I have another?’ response. When Trump claimed he had conversations with Emmanuel Macron agreeing to raise prescription drug prices or begging for the US to defend Europe even if they didn’t pay (“the president of a big country”), the French president issued no direct response. He left it to his office to issue quiet denials on background, fearful of attracting Trump’s wrath if he contradicted the US president’s fantasies. When Trump attacked and insulted Keir Starmer (yet again this past weekend calling on him to resign), the British prime minister simply took it and claimed “I get on really well with Trump.” When Trump attacked Friedrich Merz two months ago, all the German chancellor could muster in response was to praise the Atlantic alliance.

That’s why it’s such a big deal that this weekend Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni called out Trump for lying about an interaction they had at last week’s G7 summit in France. The row started when Trump told Italian television: "She begged me to take a picture with her. She wanted a picture with me so ​badly. I wouldn't have taken it, but I felt sorry for her."

Unlike other European leaders who have simply let such false anecdotes slide, Meloni immediately took to social media to rebut the accusation, posting on Instagram: "Donald Trump's statements are completely made up. I am frankly astonished. I don't ‌know why ⁠the president of the United States behaves like this towards his allies." And in a characteristic display of her political acumen, she added: “Neither I nor Italy ever beg".

Trump then doubled down, posting on Truth Social: “Italian Prime Minister Gigiorgia [sic] Meloni asked, over and over, for a picture with me during the G-7 meeting in France. She is doing poorly in Italy with her level of popularity, possibly because she turned down the United States of America, a country that truly loves and protects Italy.”

If he expected to successfully intimidate Meloni as he has other European leaders, he both underestimated her political shrewdness and overestimated his current leverage. She responded directly to his post, saying: “These constant, unprovoked attacks are senseless. As for my popularity, being your friend certainly has not helped it, nor does it depend on my relationship with you. My popularity depends on my ability to defend Italy’s national interest, and that is exactly what I have always done…in any case, my popularity is none of your concern, I suggest you focus on yours.”

There have been a lot of takes about this over the past days. Readers of this Substack know I am no fan of the Italian prime minister, who leads a far-right movement that is literally the successor party to Mussolini’s fascists. But this is yet another sign, as I have written before, of how the far right has displayed better political instincts by distancing themselves from Trump and his imperialist wars faster than Europe’s centrists. The ECFR’s Jeremy Cliffe has made the same observation in his piece for the Financial Times last month.

There are two things that this episode shows. One, as has been widely observed, is that Trump is severely weakened and vulnerable following his Iran War misadventure. Giorgia Meloni is the most politically astute (and, as I’ve argued before, in some ways the most powerful) leader in Europe at the moment. She senses where the political winds are blowing, and other European leaders follow her. They followed her over the past two years when she was Trump’s cheerleader, with the Commission even sending a representative to the inaugural Trump Board of Peace meeting at her recommendation. And now, they will follow her in pushing back against Trump using nationalist rhetoric. Either way, Europe’s direction of travel is being determined by Italy’s far-right prime minister – which should worry centrists.

But I want to focus on the less obvious lesson from all this – the context behind what this fight is about. Trump’s response to Meloni included the line:

“She wouldn’t even let us use Italy’s landing strips or runways, a great logistical inconvenience, and this despite the fact the US contributes hundreds of Billions of Dollars a year to protect Italy, and other “so-called” NATO Allies. Now, after the United States defeated Iran militarily, she wants to be friends again in order to get her “numbers up.” No thanks!!!”

Meloni responded by invoking her defence of "Italy’s national interest”:

“This is also what I did regarding the American military bases in Italy. Their use is governed by agreements that we have always respected, and that cannot be violated as long as I am Prime Minister. Italy remains a sovereign nation.”

That last line is important. What they’re referring to there is the Italian government’s belated decision (well after the war began) not to allow the US to use its base in Sicily to launch direct attacks on Iran, citing the legal agreement governing that base which requires the US to ask permission (and receive an affirmative vote from the Italian Parliament under the Italian constitution) to do so. This has infuriated not just President Trump but also most of the US foreign policy establishment. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has even threatened to pull the US out of NATO if European countries deny the US the ability to do whatever they want in their European bases. “If now we have reached a point where the NATO alliance means that we can’t use those bases, that, in fact, that we can no longer use those bases to defend America’s interests, then NATO is a one-way street. Then NATO is simply about us having troops in Europe to defend Europe,” he said in April.

What Rubio is reflecting there is the long-standing US practice of operating outside the scope of its agreements with European countries at its bases, a subject I write about in Chapter 13 of my book The Owned Continent. Both Republican and Democrat administrations have believed they do not need to actually consult “allied” national governments about what happens on the US bases on their territory, regardless of what is written in the status of forces agreements. The reason is simple: the “allied” European governments have never asked them to. The Iran War would not have been possible without the use of US bases in Germany and the UK. It is likely that what has happened on those bases over the past months is not in line with the legal agreements the US has with those countries either. But of course, Berlin and London have never objected to such outside-the-law operations before, why would they start now? The US has continued using their British and German bases to attack Iran, with no objection from those governments.

But before you give Meloni too much credit here, keep in mind that her denial of the use of the base in Sicily was more about optics than actually blocking US operations. The US is still able to use its base in Northern Italy to conduct the war, and the definition of “logistical” operations that are still allowed has been very flexible. The US State Department isn’t angry because Meloni and Sanchez’s block on the use of US bases has actually disrupted the war effort. They’re mad because for the first time, European countries are insisting that Washington actually abide by the treaties governing these bases. And they’re worried about the precedent that will set after decades of America operating with impunity in Europe.

Meloni says “Italy remains a sovereign nation” – but is it though? The American government clearly doesn’t think so. For years they have treated Italy like a protectorate vassal state, doing whatever they like there without feeling the need to consult with the government. And it’s not just Italy, it’s also Germany, Britain, Belgium, Denmark, Poland, etc. So look beyond the tabloid titillation of this back-and-forth. This is much bigger than Donald Trump’s fragile ego. The most politically powerful woman in Europe just challenged decades of European foreign policy. And she was the most unlikely person to do it. We are living in incredible times.

Sanchez support

Meloni isn’t the only politically shrewd leader in Europe, even if she is the shrewdest. Even as she and Pedro Sanchez sparred at last week’s European Council summit on the subjects of China and migration, the Spanish Prime Minister took time out to show solidarity with her over Trump’s attacks (while Merz unsurprisingly remained silent, just as he did when Trump attacked Sanchez – so much for the Merzoni alliance).

“This attack is neither political nor personal. I don’t even know how to describe it,” Sanchez said at his summit closing press conference in Brussels. He said he had expressed this to her “in private as well, during the summit.” Asked about the exchange, President Macron was not willing to go as far as Sanchez, saying only that he was “surprised” by the comments and adding he would discuss the issue with her at their next meeting this Thursday at the Franco-Italian summit in Antibes.

Meloni’s pushback against Trump is getting more attention than Sanchez’s for obvious reasons. It is more of a direct confrontation, done in social media format (a to-camera video even!), coming from someone who is from the same far-right political ideology who had strongly supported him until now. I think it’s important to give credit where credit’s due. Meloni didn’t have to do this, it took courage that her counterparts in France and Germany have not been willing to show. But let’s also not forget that this woman also said just five months ago that Trump should be the Nobel Peace Prize. She was the only European leader to attend his inauguration last year.

This is about political opportunism on Meloni’s part, something that has defined her entire career. But it still look courage and it still took intelligence, and other European leaders should learn the lesson as she receives huge backing form the Italian public, from both the left and right, for what she’s done here. The Italian centre left has lost their opportunity to tie Meloni to Trump and make an appeal to the public based on resistance to American hegemony. And now it’s too late. She’s turned the tables on them and they’re now left with nothing. Because the slavish devotion that our European leaders showed to Trump in 2025 is not popular. Just ask Keir Starmer, who just resigned today.

In this case, Meloni should indeed be followed.