Donald Trump has spent the past year telling Europeans they are useless leeches who have never helped the United States. Now he is suddenly begging them for help in reopening the Straight of Hormuz, which Iran has closed in response to the American-Israeli War on Iran launched two weeks ago. Apparently the Trump administration did not anticipate Iran closing the straight, even though this has been the central assumption of every war-gaming scenario involving Iran for the past four decades. It looks like the only way to forcibly reopen it is to send in boots on the ground, something Trump isn’t politically willing to consider. So he wants the Europeans to do it for him.
“I'm demanding that these countries come in,” he said aboard Air Force One yesterday. “It’s only appropriate that people who are the beneficiaries of the strait will help to make sure that nothing bad happens there.” He claimed the US could force open the straight itself but it has no reason to because it doesn’t need anything coming out of the strait – an obviously ridiculous claim. “You could make the case that maybe we shouldn't be there at all, because we don't need it, we have a lot of oil." He then warned that the future of NATO would be “very bad” if the Europeans didn’t acquiesce to his demand. On other words, he is threatening to end the US military protectorate over Europe if the Europeans don’t bail him out.
So far, no European country has come to his aid. France and Germany have ruled it out entirely. The UK and Italy say they are still considering. EU foreign ministers are meeting right now in Brussels to discuss the situation, but we’re told not to expect any agreement to send ships to the strait as demanded. At most, they might consider sending a few more vessels to the existing Operation Aspides which is protecting shipping in the Red Sea from attacks from Yemen. But Germany has flatly ruled out extending the Aspides mission to cover the Persian Gulf also. Under its current rules of engagement, it would be impossible for that mission to do what Trump is demanding in the Gulf.
European officials have pointed out that it would take weeks for their ships to reach the gulf and once they’re there it’s not even clear what Trump wants them to do. The ships would surely come under fire from Iran, and then what? Even all the military vessels of the US and its ‘allies’ together would not be enough to escort every shipping vessel through the strait. They would only be able to escort a small amount - making only a small change to the situation but with enormous risk. They’ve also pointed out that just last week, during the G7 call, Trump told the other leaders the US didn’t need any help because it’s already won the war and ships can pass through the strait safely.
“The Americans chose this path together with the Israelis, we only criticised that very moderately,” said German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius today. “The next step is one that threatens to draw us into this conflict. What does Donald Trump expect from a handful or two handfuls of European frigates to achieve there in the Strait of Hormuz, which the powerful American Navy cannot manage alone? It is not our war; we did not start it.”
The fundamental question here is whether it is in the European interest to try to force open the Strait of Hormuz right now. The tremendous risks and downsides are clear. This step would inevitably drag Europe into Trump and Netanyahu’s war, which is exactly what they want. The US Navy is the largest and strongest in the world and clearly has the ability to do this themselves if they were willing to expend the blood and treasure. But they are not, they want others to do that for them. Not only would that put European lives in danger (both the soldiers fighting in the war and the civilians who would suffer Iranian reprisals), it would also be a full endorsement of this illegal war.
On the other hand, while Trump is lying when he says the US won’t suffer any negative effects from the closure of the straight, it is true that the negative impact on Europe is going to be far greater than that on the United States. Analysts say Europeans are about to see inflation that will make the pandemic look like child’s play if this war goes on much longer. It could also result in a huge migration wave with refugees fleeing from the Middle East to Europe. It is in Europe’s interest that this war ends quickly. But if they help Trump out right now, is that just encouraging him to drag it on longer? The strait’s closure, and Trump’s inability to reopen it, is the most likely reason for him to call off the war in the next week and declare a fake victory.
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You can make compelling arguments on either side. But what’s clear is that if Europe were to take action in the strait (which I think it probably shouldn’t), it should not do so without extracting major concessions from Trump that he should be forced to abide by.
“If the US is asking European and Asian allies to send their navies to the Strait of Hormuz, they should consider demanding an immediate cessation of all US tariffs on them in return,” noted Gideon Rachman, the chief foreign affairs commentator for the Financial Times, yesterday. “I don't think Trump would hesitate to make that demand, if the situations were reversed.”
The problem, of course, is that time is limited. We’re not expecting any coordinated decision on the Strait of Hormuz to come out of today’s meeting of foreign affairs ministers. That leaves Thursday’s European Council summit as the only other chance to do so before the impacts of the strait’s closure start to spiral out of control.
Once again, the EU’s national leaders have been forced to toss out their planned agenda for a summit and focus instead on the US president’s latest globally destabilising actions. At the June Council, they had to react to his tariff threat. At the October and December Councils, they had to react to him ending support for Ukraine. At the January Council, they had to react to his threat to invade Greenland. And now at this March Council, they have to react to his war on Iran. Each time, the summits end with a muddled statement of impotence. It looks like this summit will be no different. But it doesn’t have to be that way. The EU’s leaders could use this opportunity to turn the tables on Trump, finally ending this pattern of extortion and reaction.
Based on the briefings we’re getting from national governments ahead of this summit, that doesn’t look likely. EU countries are still divided over how to react to the Iran War. Spain’s Pedro Sanchez wants the Council conclusions to say the war is a violation of international law. Germany’s Friedrich Merz will block any such attempt to insert a reference to international law, which he and his Berlaymont puppet Ursula von der Leyen effectively declared to be dead last week. He and Italy’s Giorgia Meloni do not want the conclusions to contain anything that could anger Trump and jeapordise the EU-US ‘surrender deal’ that they are still pressuring the European Parliament to ratify immediately despite the Supreme Court ruling last month invalidating the extortion tool Trump used to force the EU concessions.
The EU has given up on international law. Now what?
Taking her cues from the German chancellor, EU President von der Leyen declared yesterday that Europe “can no longer be a custodian” of the rules-based order.
“We don’t want trade escalation, we want the US involved in Ukraine,” a “diplomat from a large country” (likely Germany) told Politico yesterday. “We want them involved in NATO. Is it worth risking these objectives in order to be vocal about Iran? So far, not really.”
Unfortunately, despite being proven right over and over again Sanchez remains isolated and ostracised in a European Council dominated by the right-wing leaders of Germany and Italy. So we’re looking at three possible scenarios on Thursday, in order of their likelihood:
The Council agrees no coordinated action regarding the Iran War. All European countries continue their non-response to Trump’s demand, stalling for time.
The Council agrees no coordinated action but individual countries (UK, Germany, maybe France) agree to Trump’s demand to send ships to the strait without any conditions.
The Council agrees to an EU-coordinated mission to open the straight (first seeking diplomacy with the threat of military action) in exchange for Trump dropping his tariffs on the EU and restarting US military support for Ukraine.
That last one is a long shot. As we’ve seen time and time again, European leaders lack the courage to stand up to Trump. However in this instance, I think it remains unlikely for now that they’re going to give in to his demand. So I think scenario two is also not likely. They know that Trump’s threat to withdraw the US protectorate over Europe and leave the EU at the mercy of Russia is a serious one. But they also know that the short-term risk of NATO collapse (leaving Europe vulnerable to Russian invasion for a few years while they build a European capacity for self-defence) is dwarfed by the immediate risk of military action in the strait drawing Europe into a war that could quickly spiral into World War III. Our European leaders may have been acting in completely illogical ways and against the European interest over the past year, but I just can’t image that even they would do something so stupid for nothing in return.
Let’s also remember, as I’ve written before, that Trump’s threats to pull US troops out of Europe are an obvious bluff. Without the US military presence in Europe, America could not launch its global wars like the one in Iran that it’s currently engaged in.
Trump is in a very difficult situation here and for the first time since his rapid and unprecedented accumulation of power started since winning the 2024 election, he looks truly vulnerable. They say when your enemy is losing, you shouldn’t get in the way. That’s true, and what’s even more true is that you shouldn’t bail him out. We are about to go through a world of pain as we enter some of the most dangerous months the world has seen in decades. But we could emerge on the other side of this with Trump mortally wounded. That is a good outcome for Europe, and could be the only silver lining to come out of this mess. Europe, East Asia and the Gulf should therefor be in no hurry to help Trump, especially given that their help could very easily make the situation worse.
The world did not want this war. Only Netanyahu, Trump and Hegseth wanted it. Now that they are flailing, the countries that warned against it should not help rescue them - especially if their help actually risks prolonging and enlarging the war. And even if they conclude that they need to do so to stop energy prices spiralling out of control, then the least they should do is demand US concessions in return.
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They have to say, no. Refuse as they've been doing and figure the rest out as they go. Creative solutions come out of crisis and getting involved is an absolute non-starter for 10,658 reasons.