VDL's confirmation: Greens are in, and Meloni's ECR is out

The Greens chose to swallow the humiliation of von der Leyen giving them nothing, in order to be part of a pro-EU controlling coalition. ECR chose to put themselves firmly in the far-right opposition.

Despite some uncertainty about her chances, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen survived her confirmation vote in the European Parliament here in Strasbourg today by a healthy margin - 41 votes. That’s a far cry from the nine votes by which she survived the confirmation vote for her first term in 2019, and it’s clear which group delivered her this strong majority: the Greens. While it’s unclear whether it was determinative to her confirmation, a last-minute decision by the Green group to endorse her following this morning’s speech to MEPs pleading her case saved the president from the humiliation of a victory margin even smaller than her 2019 result - and the possible risk of narrow defeat.

The president already had the endorsement of the three centrist groups that have formed a controlling coalition in the parliament: the center-left S&D, liberal Renew and her own center-right EPP. Those three form a majority of 401 seats, far more than the 361 needed for confirmation. But it was expected that some MEPs, possibly as many as 20%, might defect since this is a secret ballot. So the president needed the votes of at least some MEPs in other groups, and there were only two options: the left-wing Greens, and the right-wing ECR of Giorgia Meloni. By coincidence, in the end 401 MEPs voted yes to her confirmation - the same as the seats controlled by the three centrist groups. But since several MEPs in those three groups have publicly said they voted against her (for various national party reasons), we know that those were made up for mostly by Green MEPs.