Following the shock first-place finish of Geert Wilders’ far-right Party for Freedom (PVV) in yesterday’s Dutch election, this morning’s headlines were filled with predictable claims that he had “won”. But in a parliamentary democracy, only someone who can receive the support of more than 50% of MPs has truly won, and it is very unlikely that Wilders will be able to do so.
In the Netherlands’ fractured political landscape, it doesn’t take much to come in first. The PVV has won just 37 seats in the 150-seat Dutch parliament, not even halfway to commanding a majority. This isn’t even the first time that the PVV has had a shockingly good result, though it is the first time they’ve come first. In 2010 they came third, with 24 seats. In 2017 they came second, with 20 seats. In theory this could be seen as less of a shock than a natural progression. Their platform has changed little all this time. The “party for freedom” wants to end freedom of religion, banning the koran and construction of mosques. They have stuck with their ‘nexit’ dream of seceding from the EU, even after other far-right parties in Europe dropped that from their platform after seeing the negative effects of Brexit. The main plank of their platform is vilifying Dutch residents of the Muslim faith, with some party members extending their vision of what to do with them to horrifying extremes.
Like Marine Le Pen in France, Wilders has been around for what seems like forever. But there has always been a “cordon sanitaire” around the PVV, meaning that the centrist parties have refused to consider forming a coalition with them to put them in government.
The big question is whether that cordon will hold this time. Those cordons have been fraying at the edges across Europe, with center-right increasingly relying on far-right support while keeping them out of government over the past decade. The center-right CDU has been allying with the far-right AfD in local governments in Germany and the center-right PP has been allying with far-right VOX in local governments in Spain (with the apparent intention of doing it nationally if they had done better in July’s election). The center right is relying on the far right to govern in Sweden - without letting them into government. But until now, outside of Italy and Austria, the European center right has for the most part stuck with their cordons sanitaire, refusing to bring the far right into coalition governments at national level. But that may be about to shift, as we nearly saw in Spain this summer.
The rub is that in the Netherlands, there isn’t much of a center right to speak of. The EPP member, the Christian Democrats, are a small party that won only 5 seats. Outgoing Prime Minister Mark Rutte’s VVD is technically a Liberal party, though many in the Netherlands think of the other Liberal party, D66, as being the true liberals. Despite its membership in the Liberal ALDE group at European level, their actual political orientation could be described as more traditionally center right. But they are Liberals in the end, meaning they will be less likely to to consider allying with the far right than Christian Democrats have been elsewhere in Europe. However, they did rely on PVV’s out-of government support after the 2010 election to make Rutte prime minister.
VVD leader Dilan Yeşilgöz-Zegerius said last night she would never serve in a Wilders government. “Mr Wilders cannot form a majority,” she said. Frans Timmermans’ left-wing bloc has also ruled out any coalition with the far right. Pieter Omtzigt, leader of the centre-right New Social Contract party, said during the campaign we wouldn’t ally with PVV. But forming a government without the PVV would require a very large, very unwieldy grand coalition. We are unlikely to have an answer any time soon. After the last election, it took nine months to form a government. As time goes on, these iron-clad commitments to the cordon sanitaire may start to melt.
The Dutch election result doesn’t bode well for neighboring Belgium, the record-holder for never-ending government formation periods. The far-right Flemish nationalist Vlaams Belang party has been surging in the polls, with some predicting they could come first in next June’s national election, just like PVV did. Bart De Wever, the leader of the center-right Flemish nationalist party N-VA (the largest party in the Belgian parliament), has said he will stick to Belgium’s cordon sanitaire and would never ally with the far right. But some have wondered how committed he is to that.
Yesterday’s Dutch result of course has implications for Europe, and indeed for the whole Western world. But these American newspaper headlines screaming of a “far-right surge in Europe” are a bit hard to take from a country where the far-right faction within the Republican Party in the US Congress has managed to oust the speaker and is able to shut down the government. In all likelihood, the 37 PVV MPs won’t have much power despite being the largest opposition party to the new government. The fact remains that, for now (and with the exception of Italy), the far right in Europe has not taken power despite becoming increasingly powerful opposition forces. By contrast, the far right in the United States not only had the presidency for four years (and may again in a year), they are in control of the lower house of Congress.
That isn’t to say that it can’t happen here. It may happen in the Netherlands in the next months. We could have a President Le Pen in 2027. But it hasn’t happened here, and it did happen in the United States. It may be about to happen again. The likelihood of a Trump second term is probably 20 times higher than the likelihood of a Le Pen presidency or a Wilders premiership.
Faith in liberal democracy is shattering across the Western world. America and Europe are going through this together. But it often feels that the American and British media have an instinct to exaggerate the significance of far-right electoral successes in Europe in order to reassure themselves that things aren’t so bad where they are. Coming from two-party systems, they reassure themselves that they have no far right because their far right is now embedded into their mainstream formerly center-right parties. So they point to multiparty democracies in continental Europe and say “what a mess.”
Wilders’ victory is not a good sign for the West, for liberal democracy, or for the EU. But it is not the disaster that is being painted. We’re talking about a party that was second place with 24 seats 13 years ago and is first place with 37 seats now. It’s bad. But what is happening across the Atlantic is far more frightening
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