As Britain declines to show solidarity against Trump, Canada looks to the EU
Justin Trudeau is in Brussels today meeting with EU leaders, following his visit to Paris yesterday. He's giving London a miss.
Last week, as the EU’s national leaders met for an informal summit in Brussels, they were joined by a special guest for dinner. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer joined them - the first time a UK prime minister has done so since Brexit. But the general vibe inside the room seems to have been still a bit strained, and Starmer came off as rather stand-offish according to one national official. Despite the change in tone that has come with his “reset” on relations, he is still insisting on the red lines which are preventing any movement in materially changing the UK-EU relationship. And he declined to show the same solidarity with Denmark in the face of Trump’s threats to forcibly annex Greenland as was shown by the leaders of France and Germany. As Trump holds out the possibility of excluding the UK from his trade war with the EU, Starmer has clearly adopted a strategy of laying low and trying to escape the US president’s notice. Neither he nor his government ministers are criticising Trump. They are not defending Denmark or Canada, despite the fact that they’re in a military alliance with both and they share a monarch with the latter.
By contrast, just before the summit began the chair of the European Council Antonio Costa had what seems to have been a far more solidary conversation with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. The news had just broken that Trump was moving ahead with his 25% blanket tariffs against Canada and Mexico (which he later backed down from, granting a one-month stay in exchange for symbolic gestures from both). Trudeau phoned the EU Council chair to coordinate and find solidarity with the EU, which Trump has indicated is the next target of his tariffs. By all accounts, the Canadian prime minister got that solidarity from the EU. But he has not gotten such statements of support from the UK. Following Trudeau’s call with Starmer last week, all Downing Street could muster afterwards was that Starmer “welcomes an international conversation on the importance of trade and collaboration between allies and partners.” President von der Leyen, on the other hand, said last week the EU will hit back hard and join with like-minded partners hard if they are targeted by Trump’s tariffs. Starmer has made no such statement of self-defence, or solidarity with others targeted.
It is in this context that Trudeau comes to Brussels today to meet with EU leaders, following his visit to Paris. As far as we know, there is no plan for him to visit London. “Transatlantic collaboration – in defence and security, in innovation and energy, in business and trade – are essential to Canada’s success,” Trudeau said in a statement ahead of the visit. “In Paris and Brussels, we will strengthen Canada’s alliances and partnerships, and put Canadians at the forefront of every opportunity.” The statement noted that Trudeau will be discussing with EU leaders ways they can together “protect the rules-based international order.”
No one in the British government has raised their head to defend Canada from Trump’s threats, even after he warned in a Super Bowl interview on Sunday that with a stroke of his pen he could make it so Canada is “not viable as a country” and would be forced to become America’s “51st state”. It is hard to imagine a situation where another member of the Commonwealth (let alone the Commonwealth realm which shares the British monarch) would suffer such threats from a nieghbour and yet receive no support from London. But when the one making the threats is the United States, a country which the UK depends upon for its military protection and economic well-being, then apparently they can threaten the commonwealth in any way they want. But this failure to stand up for Canada is not only remarkably short-sighted (since in the end Trump will probably launch tariffs against the UK in any event), it is also exacerbating differences between Ottawa and London that have been growing ever since Brexit - as Canada moves closer to the EU.
The UK government line on this is that they decry all tariffs in general, but they have not felt the need to comment on any specific tariff threat that has been made because they expect so many to be coming. But this doesn’t pass the smell test. For starters, this isn’t any country. It is Canada, which was part of the British Empire until just 40 years ago and still today remains part of the Commonwealth with the King of England as their head of state. It is clear that Trudeau was looking for strong support with his call to Starmer last week. He didn’t get it.
The other reason the UK’s silence seems so cowardly is that this isn’t just about economics. Trudeau said Friday during a closed-door session with Canadian business and labor leaders that Trump’s talk of making Canada the 51st U.S. state was “a real thing” and tied to desire for access to the country’s natural resources, according to the CBC. “Mr. Trump has it in mind that the easiest way to do it is absorbing our country and it is a real thing,” he reportedly said. “They’re very aware of our resources of what we have, and they very much want to be able to benefit from those.”
That the British government would sit idly by while such implied threats of coercion and annexation are made against a member of the Commonwealth is even more damning than their silence about the trade war. Consistently, Starmer’s government refuses to take any action which they think has even the possibility of offending Donald Trump. This was again in evidence yesterday at the AI Summit in Paris, when after it emerged that the US would refuse to sign the final declaration because it calls for AI to be “inclusive and sustainable”, the UK withdrew its support and also did not sign the declaration. The language was particularly important to Canada.
All of this comes as the Canada-UK trading relationship is growing further apart, as the Canada-EU trading relationship is growing larger. The Canada-EU free trade agreement (CETA) has been provisionally in effect since 2017, but its full implementation will be coming in the next years. After the UK left the EU, London and Ottawa reached an agreement to continue applying the EU-Canada trade relationship, including the parts of CETA that had already taken effect. It was the British government’s practice at the time to pretend that these were new trade agreements that were a “Brexit benefit”, when in fact they were simply essential roll-overs of the trading terms that the UK had had with 3rd countries as a member of the EU.
But as the remaining parts of CETA take effect now for EU-Canada trade, the same will not happen with UK-Canada trade. That was not agreed in the continuity agreement. So as Canada urgently needs to replace the trade it is losing with the US, it will first be looking to the EU - not only because the EU is such a larger market, but also because the terms of free trade will be more open.
It’s really a remarkable development when you think about it. Since Canada’s relatively recent independence from the UK, they have enjoyed an extremely close relationship characterised by shared history, culture, and governance. But since 2020 the impact of Brexit has led to a dilution of the traditional ties that once existed. At the same time, the urgency to address newfound economic and political realities has strained the historical camaraderie. In contrast, Canada's relationship with the European Union has blossomed since then. CETA’s as-yet-unrealised full implementation would represent one of the most ambitious free trade deals in the world, reducing tariffs, enhancing trade in services, and fostering investment. The agreement has already opened doors for Canadian businesses, providing access to a market of over 500 million consumers. Additionally, it emphasises shared values such as human rights, environmental protection, and sustainable development, further aligning Canada with the EU's policy frameworks.
The economic implications of this shifting dynamic are significant. As Canada increasingly relies on European markets, its economic interdependence with the EU will deepen, providing a counterbalance to any uncertainties stemming from its relationship with the UK. Diplomatically, Canada's increasing partnership with the EU creates a strategic pivot that goes beyond mere economic interactions. The EU’s collective stance on significant global issues—such as climate change, trade regulations, and geopolitical stability—aligns with Canada’s vision for a multilateral world. The UK moved away from these values during the last years of Conservative rule, and the new Labour government has been marked by a hesitancy to re-embrace them. The UK’s departure from the EU, which Labour has no intention of rowing back, has led to questions about its ability to sustain its global influence. As Canada embraces its role within the EU framework, it may further diminish its diplomatic engagements with the UK, opting instead to collaborate with EU partners on global issues.
Starmer’s timid, head-down approach may yet enable to UK to escape Trump’s tariff wrath even as Britain’s supposed allies suffer. But it seems more likely that Starmer, who Trump and those around him have expressed open disdain for, will not be rewarded for his fealty in the end but instead the UK will be attacked by America just as much as the others. If that happens, the diplomatic damage caused by Starmer’s lack of solidarity with Canada, the EU and Denmark in these initial weeks will not be easily undone. Other countries will remember what kind of friend Britain was when she though she could escape harm. And once harm comes to Britain, Canada and the EU in equal measure, the latter two will not forget what happened in the first days of Trump’s trade war.