Germany's next chancellor finally admits America is a danger - but there's political calculation behind it
"This is no longer the America we used to know,” center-right candidate Friedrich Merz told a rally. But the abrupt U-turn toward Trump criticism is likely meant to draw contrast with far-right AfD.
Friedrich Merz, the man expected to become Germany’s next chancellor after the election on 23 February, has been playing with fire. As the far-right Alternative for Germany party has surged in the polls to second place with the help of X owner and American shadow-president Elon Musk, Merz has broken the ‘firewall’ against them in the parliament by joining with AfD MPs to pass a non-binding resolution on immigration. This has made prominent figures in his center-right CDU party extremely nervous, notably former chancellor Angela Merkel who is lambasting him over his flirtation with the far right. She said she “couldn’t remain silent” as Merz dropped the firewall on working with the AfD, even if he still promises he will not form a governing coalition with them after the election. Many do not believe he will stick to this promise, given the difficult coalition math he will be facing in March. He has in the past advocated for a “more calm approach” to the AfD and advocated for them to have a vice presidency position in the Bundestag.
Merkel’s warning is clear. As AfD is receiving support from Washington, Merz - who has pulled the CDU significantly to the right since he took over in 2022 - is only helping legitimise them by adopting much of their anti-immigration rhetoric and backing off from strong condemnation of them. As the saying goes, if people are looking at the original and a copy, they prefer the original. And as we’ve seen play out repeatedly in Europe, when the center right tries to stop the flow of votes to the far right by copying their rhetoric, they only end up in a situation where voters can’t see the difference between them. The first poll since Merz joined the far right for the non-binding immigration vote indicates that the gambit failed. CDU/CSU went down, AfD went up.
Merz now seems to be quite worried, and wants to abruptly change tack. This need to urgently differentiate the CDU from the AfD could explain Merz’s sudden U-turn in his comments about the United States yesterday at a rally in Swabia. He said that he is “highly concerned” about recent developments in the United States since Donald Trump took power, and that “this is no longer the America we used to know.” He warned that the rule of law and democracy is being rapidly dismantled. “The way officials, the Department of Justice, the public prosecutors’ offices, the way they’re all being thrown out, the way they’re pardoning people who have been sentenced to years in prison, that will have consequences for America,” Merz said.
He was referring to Trump pardoning all of the January 6th insurrectionists, which some have said amounts to him green-lighting his own private loyalist militia. He was also referencing Elon Musk’s dismantling of key institutions of government through the power given to him by Trump using the newly-created Orwelian agency DOGE. Musk has shut down USAID, bringing an end to American foreign aid. Musk has also sent an email to all federal employees warning of “deferred resignations” unless they sign a loyalty pledge. Multiple federal watchdogs have been sacked, and prosecutors involved in criminal cases against Trump or related to the 2020 coup attempt or insurrection have been fired. The FBI and CIA are the next target, as the Project 2025 plan (which was well-published before the US election) to purge the federal government of anyone not loyal to Trump commences apace. Just two weeks into the job, Trump has already made threats of forced territorial annexation in three different continents.
Merz has criticised Musk already for getting involved in the German election, but until this week he has shied away from any direct criticism of Trump - as have most European leaders. But this is increasingly creating a disconnect between what the European public can see with their own eyes and how European leaders are describing the situation. European politicians in power are desperately trying to insist that everything is normal, that Europe and America remain steadfast allies. But their citizens can plainly see that this is not the case. Why are most European leaders so reticent to acknowledge reality? Because this is a continent under an American military protectorate, and there is great risk for any European leader to speak out against Trump and therefor attract his wrath. They are caught between a rock and a hard place: acknowledge the truth about what is happening and risk retaliation from Trump, or pretend everything is fine and risk being punished by voters.
It is no accident that Germany’s leadership has been uncharacteristically outspoken about America over the past two weeks - more so than in other European countries. Current center-left Chancellor Olaf Scholz strongly criticised Trump’s threats to take Greenland, going much further than the Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen (who is not facing an election) was willing to go. “The inviolability of borders is a fundamental principle of international law,” Scholz said after meeting with her. “Russia has broken this principle with its invasion of Ukraine, thereby also laying the axe to the peace order in Europe. This principle must apply to everyone. Borders must not be moved by force.” Similarly, following Trump’s threat to take over Gaza and expel the Palestinians on Monday night, it was German foreign minister Annalena Baerbock, from the Green party, who gave one of the most forceful rebukes from a European politician. Why are German politicians, who normally never dare say anything negative about America, suddenly feeling so bold? Why have they been so much more willing to stand up to Trump than governing politicians in the UK, Italy, Belgium or Portugal? Because those other politicians aren’t facing an election, and Germany is. The risk of facing a voter backlash for refusing to acknowledge reality is greater in Germany than the risk of facing the wrath of Trump. For Keir Starmer in the UK, who is not facing any election, he has clearly concluded the opposite.
The risk for Merz was that as Trump, Musk and the United States in general becomes very unpopular in Germany, he would be outflanked by his opponents on the left because he wasn’t criticising Washington as they are. And the clearest way at this moment to distinguish the CDU from the AfD, which is having a euphoric love affair with Trump and Musk, is for Merz to cast himself as the person who will stand up to the US president and protect Germans from him. And in this way, he doesn’t have to attack the AfD directly and risk offending their voters or their CDU sympathizers. Rather, he can simply attack the foreign leader they are worshipping. The German far right will roll out the red carpet for a predatory far-right American government that means Europe harm. Merz wants to send the message that he will protect Germans from Trump.
But the reality is that this is a promise Merz is unable to keep given the dependence on the US of Germany, a practically-occupied country which at times has more American soldiers in it than active-duty German soldiers. Nor is there anything in the background or past statements of Merz, a staunch Atlanticist (he is a former chairman of Atlantic Bridge), which would suggest he is the one who would be inclined to lead Europe’s resistance against a newly-imperialist America. In other words, this doesn’t look like a genuine conversion, but rather political opportunism. Once in office, does anyone really expect Merz to stand up to Trump? Does anyone really expect any German leader to do so?
One need look no further than the German leader in the Berlaymont to understand how difficult the psychology around this is for the Atlanticist German political elite. EU president Ursula Von der Leyen has not exactly been a profile in courage in standing up to Trump so far. She consistently looks terrified of saying the wrong thing that might offend him. She offered no reaction to Trump’s Greenland threat other than to talk about how great the EU-US alliance is, and she did not have any reaction to Trump’s Gaza plan. Nor has she had anything to say about Musk interfering in European elections. And why? Again, because she faces no election (and never did). She is not accountable to the people of Europe but rather to the EU prime ministers and presidents, most of whom have been cowering in a corner these past weeks refusing to say anything about what’s happening in America. The only thing von der Leyen has reacted to is Trump’s tariff threats, but even her comments on this on Monday after the leaders’ retreat in Brussels were uninspiring and vague to say the least.
Not all of Europe’s leaders have been cowards in the face of Trump’s threats. Witness the strong reactions of center-left Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez and center-right Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk. They didn’t need upcoming elections to stiffen their spine. Others, such as far-right Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and far-right Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, seem to actually be rooting for Trump in his war against Europe (they perhaps forget that they themselves are European). But the majority of the prime ministers in the European Council are simply keeping their heads down, refusing to acknowledge the reality of the horror show unfolding around them for fear that they will attract Trump’s wrath. It has been a sorry spectacle for Europe. And yesterday’s speech in Swabia is more likely explained by political calculations than by the idea that Merz is suddenly one of the few leaders in Europe to have grown a spine.